From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Delivery-date: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 16:54:10 -0700 Received: from mail-ot1-f58.google.com ([209.85.210.58]) by mail.fairlystable.org with esmtps (TLS1.3) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 (Exim 4.94.2) (envelope-from ) id 1wjQTR-00027N-Pk for bitcoindev@gnusha.org; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 16:54:10 -0700 Received: by mail-ot1-f58.google.com with SMTP id 46e09a7af769-7ec3b429610sf1091027a34.1 for ; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 16:54:09 -0700 (PDT) ARC-Seal: i=3; a=rsa-sha256; t=1783986843; cv=pass; d=google.com; s=arc-20260327; b=Avxt4BuEbqgvMh0Acf5QuY+H2EKDG2WcYabm2/zI7HUDlx7ugckxPeP6wVxbigHfbb 4npKIMnOd4J1o9XT7aATg72lj3Fb58nhjOZq75kesrukz6Mifj5XPpcUMq5+InRMVn1t JEhSBgdUfEJPp/Iv9IZMno7u8uMNwHmcN8aw/Fvqbxp1wMdtX1gs+5wSHJnyTRH5Ejrl iDoAMr8BttmhXcDd5M4Nec/67+l7queQ943uguy/zoKs6XOpMb9ob4SUlFXpJY3bDkHd EVBbEgoHiyl1xfHbMSsLHUUTmX6z6GVytvtokTQ80LwnUdmH+wE+TcBlsjfT87NI9SdR 6gig== ARC-Message-Signature: i=3; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=google.com; s=arc-20260327; h=list-unsubscribe:list-subscribe:list-archive:list-help:list-post :list-id:mailing-list:precedence:cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from :in-reply-to:references:mime-version:sender:dkim-signature :dkim-signature; bh=VgDNqkqToMws6GT0eDxvyRQqXDeBM29VPbnSMxUa6P8=; fh=0Oc2ajVXyb7h89LLG8chPEhPuQuCHK+Vvpo4hApN7DQ=; b=EQOR48YCHk+ecFQ3PeyDf0c7LMofqJxF6PnjmHcQuQU7FRRbnjyIEzzxMG+AuPuavU m4/7hAA63SdXqnP8ZatmFTuXa3vIfq+GTyz1Cr5f+9GMJm+LL5Xzn//pEF0UiRw5VbUL p10LMdHcMnxpb1w6vU27ysIKQSmIlD5SL0KLD383Xro6jpLAS92aDtkWwQvGVVDnLqLd J2JrkEfhSOc+PYxnZGYgB23NpGvBqmKO5pkeCXvIPnndvQPr6JT4mMgKHmWqmBDTkUj+ 2OLKmtBYX9+nGL3R9S7KKybqlqL+fyYWXU90W4S/ARy40c84AqP4PKOAPnH5jsuxI1tb TVYg==; darn=gnusha.org ARC-Authentication-Results: i=3; gmr-mx.google.com; dkim=pass header.i=@gmail.com header.s=20251104 header.b=gHroNFG1; arc=pass (i=1); spf=pass (google.com: domain of melvincarvalho@gmail.com designates 2607:f8b0:4864:20::102f as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=melvincarvalho@gmail.com; dmarc=pass (p=NONE sp=QUARANTINE dis=NONE) header.from=gmail.com; dara=pass header.i=@googlegroups.com DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=googlegroups.com; s=20251104; t=1783986843; x=1784591643; darn=gnusha.org; h=list-unsubscribe:list-subscribe:list-archive:list-help:list-post :list-id:mailing-list:precedence:x-original-authentication-results :x-original-sender:content-type:cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from :in-reply-to:references:mime-version:sender:from:to:cc:subject:date :message-id:reply-to:content-type; bh=VgDNqkqToMws6GT0eDxvyRQqXDeBM29VPbnSMxUa6P8=; b=dWjrWu2VBUNxu9adnd/LpzF2Q8y9NRK/dw3vqp0nEttWB07pZ1Zt5uhYQ3OZAm8+6r ik9xXKKRCEy+FuDrtiaAkNDgqLdTZxb59RXekZ+aV+9EkysS8Zqhlf+GbvEHROuqg2TS k6zNtoePn3u1WHMI8NBKOhz/6WdQkM13lszm9wnAhodl8TE/kpW2A8MtyZfrA1WLhLI+ 0XTLk6obRysWriTGe7xHi3Y1ZtYhfe0yTM1PB/MssgBlcG5TR4MrC/b53wBj77pcngSs f0MJfbEfsYlXt/KvzzmO9CycmLEck1hbLxGmIV5xzqVjp8AbZ7fSkz5mVse+Ls3DINpq Pdeg== DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20251104; t=1783986843; x=1784591643; darn=gnusha.org; h=list-unsubscribe:list-subscribe:list-archive:list-help:list-post :list-id:mailing-list:precedence:x-original-authentication-results :x-original-sender:content-type:cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from :in-reply-to:references:mime-version:from:to:cc:subject:date :message-id:reply-to:content-type; bh=VgDNqkqToMws6GT0eDxvyRQqXDeBM29VPbnSMxUa6P8=; b=avkliQS/IdIIAeoydodwJ5zaSaozThfLL0KQqg54BdakhZVw07nTdQO1zdxdq6D2+Z PolGwYOgQV1AmyuZ9Vuc0g2LEHSjdNo5lSll8/Ud4yCDChSRYYvfdtxvxP+GsfbstRBr 2gB0YN/GhMf0cbVuu44j/ll/I5++XaT0ZrTuworUY6/HI1gNEWA8rFgHy2P+GGN9u/ic xhNrS8SHw4DZGTp9AvzS9saeosMwaxUjRZzQREtC/XaOrdsO76vBOYNPqmfr+uhVToHZ JvvFBpsWrPOMsMvVeI6TDLULwkMcGRbfDb/NQE7xd0PvagAirigv0YnKE5TsC1LH2rcZ wTMA== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20251104; t=1783986843; x=1784591643; h=list-unsubscribe:list-subscribe:list-archive:list-help:list-post :list-id:mailing-list:precedence:x-original-authentication-results :x-original-sender:content-type:cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from :in-reply-to:references:mime-version:x-gm-gg:x-beenthere :x-gm-message-state:sender:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id :reply-to:content-type; bh=VgDNqkqToMws6GT0eDxvyRQqXDeBM29VPbnSMxUa6P8=; b=XwjuUcgKokJ3TxB6kV9S7dsRWeJrkprncoudFArBK2UIHXq5kXXweSja53Ki5qeZj4 jkiMAhaqkMB8bOE17HaBs16xzwnUiVoiMakgaMVzKikq4Z4F4qGjuCphN32OKBb/1sXX +QcY6iWbjCzCOa/KZqzQJwznprn9ul3BXGGQ28GPDG5BcQtqHxRbturobiDf//aysRuV ZACmX5+PMvaIDsNu6aIfyUw4TADL4SKnCGKJ59ZEoAzEf073I2JYaBatzlAKpC6GTE0X x8/mlTkcDO4o8ZFaegid1MiNy3cI9hNovcPZyygTdDjcQ1jJhqLyto7Bdumj4GiWXIfp KU2w== Sender: bitcoindev@googlegroups.com X-Forwarded-Encrypted: i=3; AFNElJ/tt392US2dkCBgMYGb+hPo/R87wFdPYbnBYZiweqnOOO+4tUnwTXtFMzKY1QhW/Y02jpCbhXrb8nXp@gnusha.org X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0YyYsZXcjDPPqtw2N5JOntLQYBU0eZ5MUr8qKhnBC8sBYCC2xFY1 2iTtwxstQIAuuDxJHQT2dzAUnKJPuu4V1BTAQKiHC4OBYGq8+IDBX4pB X-Received: by 2002:a05:6820:209:b0:6a3:1dc5:3570 with SMTP id 006d021491bc7-6a39a623860mr6699363eaf.31.1783986843384; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 16:54:03 -0700 (PDT) X-BeenThere: bitcoindev@googlegroups.com; h="AX0PUUd1xBIo8wd9DidVQKPOzEffO5McJy5tmoHKd66E4pNgpA==" Received: by 2002:a05:687c:391:20b0:454:e0fd:42f6 with SMTP id 586e51a60fabf-454e0fd48d0ls728852fac.2.-pod-prod-03-us; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 16:53:58 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 2002:a05:6808:f8f:b0:495:e677:1332 with SMTP id 5614622812f47-4a42afb2367mr6941963b6e.36.1783986838697; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 16:53:58 -0700 (PDT) Received: by 2002:a05:620a:b51:b0:8f9:4d19:af67 with SMTP id af79cd13be357-92ee597637dms85a; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:58:55 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 2002:ac8:5a8b:0:b0:51a:8c9c:7f3f with SMTP id d75a77b69052e-51cbf26cf3cmr111078871cf.66.1783983535133; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:58:55 -0700 (PDT) ARC-Seal: i=2; a=rsa-sha256; t=1783983535; cv=pass; d=google.com; s=arc-20260327; b=megnpD0aThvV/kABc4tjrusAmi61yY0KbXXygB2XKzq2YIioHhZ4gqvipxAo0Ft8M/ j/WSkak1thZZxjoQuFsf+/y4uOn1J5xqM06B9+CxtqnL5s7pBi0Fzf1XQa5liGTwCNNn //1R3g1HO/nsobdrByDX58PLonLUUwUteuDZbuHzt71iAnlojnVYo3niRuBEAG20zItb R3z/Q0flPwaFVZJDVKFCmq4IsTCgtppUCjbRqujZDYuchKgo6ro6ikH8SGGGHLzNC+SY Xtu/PHdalnNTSZyuXQ2CMCPJThyZ2CZGFcQM1iSacAgcYnSiWBzIBwbRLhPkOyM3WW/T GZVA== ARC-Message-Signature: i=2; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=google.com; s=arc-20260327; h=cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references :mime-version:dkim-signature; bh=4jamnTStWjqqSpe7mzh3IpM3UmNhNg7/6SnerXKr7cY=; fh=6mww6HbdSxWAzHzokBTu65MPAZPfF0xwYzNCTVDOetA=; b=ewsp/zxhwXSydE7+BB2fH2/u1tyDwkdxlT9AFYeqGMgovvp/T4TDr4SU5fB0OJdUKJ V56+xfGSPEkgFjcJYBbWvK3kNopfZRIxzl+HXC77PR0lAaQg5JJgS+5MXegPBMLTDuUl Sw/6ugV2Y1HTYSFwVnARh4E0CM1LEKErOfowDsdRqtdGZL5twYhWUYd4kOTaqvI8QzrV hOUQKN9mLO3ortT2MiarLxVwE9xvebncEa9S4FKK3msqYaOvwL8s0glI5+8d85ySfAuy Fw/LqPv4ec1DdwYNz5x+Lt0BN9SJr+Id9klkW7t8ADtO3NR8usduoQvrbfe3Gr5wRyeJ KTfQ==; dara=google.com ARC-Authentication-Results: i=2; gmr-mx.google.com; dkim=pass header.i=@gmail.com header.s=20251104 header.b=gHroNFG1; arc=pass (i=1); spf=pass (google.com: domain of melvincarvalho@gmail.com designates 2607:f8b0:4864:20::102f as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=melvincarvalho@gmail.com; dmarc=pass (p=NONE sp=QUARANTINE dis=NONE) header.from=gmail.com; dara=pass header.i=@googlegroups.com Received: from mail-pj1-x102f.google.com (mail-pj1-x102f.google.com. [2607:f8b0:4864:20::102f]) by gmr-mx.google.com with ESMTPS id d75a77b69052e-51caafc633dsi3612471cf.6.2026.07.13.15.58.55 for (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 bits=128/128); Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:58:55 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of melvincarvalho@gmail.com designates 2607:f8b0:4864:20::102f as permitted sender) client-ip=2607:f8b0:4864:20::102f; Received: by mail-pj1-x102f.google.com with SMTP id 98e67ed59e1d1-3811f512167so4399183a91.3 for ; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:58:55 -0700 (PDT) ARC-Seal: i=1; a=rsa-sha256; t=1783983534; cv=none; d=google.com; s=arc-20260327; b=f3LtakuDG0amMVfWKFuCeVxJQ2EloW31qCF4BhheQL4UN1zFN4bQ/eygwm7PCM+lMi 1lcYwDh2Eos/vXHjsyrT1+lwXbfZww5nOEl27Q+qk3D3fAH4PtSAy5gkPOyfITLLASYl ZGrAW+pIHxbPpvf1wl1TQjD31GVSz8pFNstSsmKrPz4h04wjcMIJJzCyWRGnPLYOQ0yT qenDhzWQwqkLHi9M3HOe9fxxkz8MxJsZNxFdt6WiP5JPnszOSi0Rl4SyaiJ5DX/RKRe1 I956D7wb/4hEMfNx9jn5WXHzRydXcj3i82igobIHYUw6c9Nt1o6TwaqoHeMuP6aQUr3x XNhg== ARC-Message-Signature: i=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=google.com; s=arc-20260327; h=cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references :mime-version:dkim-signature; bh=4jamnTStWjqqSpe7mzh3IpM3UmNhNg7/6SnerXKr7cY=; fh=6mww6HbdSxWAzHzokBTu65MPAZPfF0xwYzNCTVDOetA=; b=beSwyYptYaORDLS36No2/J75aJTDXB+BTvgJpjL8SUooteDBfPHHGJ+aF+Xl6LpXQl 3LkgGblhTe951rl6jsoQ8kD/RUwOscV5FOn8EVzqetDajKcUkdQC3fu5SIooEGXY/OgT D2vkjWMvA5IxBI502IkLu/+udg3Ve3yXe9AKxTtu6R3UWsarmPrnqoTFsJJgq1ZuF/+3 UNw1B6s3q9H3XJQJxxZdmeM5V6tc/QVVQIlfdjOyskXLMYDAOKCTpr3430GWxkGiTWzQ qnomLKS4SMQuEaERif8/WVpzHUtxvMRpuf5uiNtkQvf0GHl/UQ8YXiixDpQBMzuFByvL Ntdg==; dara=google.com ARC-Authentication-Results: i=1; mx.google.com; arc=none X-Gm-Gg: AfdE7cmBrhuJg0Qn4pA5p5I5MPUuv87147uWExC9LmTiw9VeKC1tWMRE0O+VdIEeTRp +lKyvNuJFfoKIf/2IEReyvUxUhiza51MOzChUceeHd0SQBVNRGr3ezOTddXYeDSBkFU9KT8nRGs BtmHSXwoI0isOLLdpz5tgxoqVh3V4Ya2z5kMV7OL3Tera3+pxSvyXsR71mfGBMq25tuj1nQ4COn 2txkTFII+TTn5iRumAJokuoHPVRTJVFSZLy+VxRO9fGKLLnoMc8/ZcSRJrqbWeGwUEEQEi3HHXa GVLzlPwU1i+3EaC9pz7VwvjdOGw3deOu4EQymjQ5E2FFKNYunoSBmZFkAQ/4PHAk7RLXfsUuH6F XCitXsjmXtKLq1g== X-Received: by 2002:a17:90a:b117:b0:37f:9ce3:ca97 with SMTP id 98e67ed59e1d1-38e1afe7b0amr34013a91.32.1783983534064; Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:58:54 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Melvin Carvalho Date: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:58:42 +0200 X-Gm-Features: AVVi8CfB_J7G4Ve5pa3JsDQKGQLmm2SOMK28Q7ZwaHQI1cpQ-ujjiAmWW3y6kSA Message-ID: Subject: Re: [bitcoindev] [Research] Bitcoin After Block Rewards: preventing miner deviation as the block rewards approaches zero To: Junhyuk Jun Lee Cc: bitcoindev@googlegroups.com Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000d5496d06568608e5" X-Original-Sender: melvincarvalho@gmail.com X-Original-Authentication-Results: gmr-mx.google.com; dkim=pass header.i=@gmail.com header.s=20251104 header.b=gHroNFG1; arc=pass (i=1); spf=pass (google.com: domain of melvincarvalho@gmail.com designates 2607:f8b0:4864:20::102f as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=melvincarvalho@gmail.com; dmarc=pass (p=NONE sp=QUARANTINE dis=NONE) header.from=gmail.com; dara=pass header.i=@googlegroups.com Precedence: list Mailing-list: list bitcoindev@googlegroups.com; contact bitcoindev+owners@googlegroups.com List-ID: X-Google-Group-Id: 786775582512 List-Post: , List-Help: , List-Archive: , List-Unsubscribe: , X-Spam-Score: -0.5 (/) --000000000000d5496d06568608e5 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ne 12. 7. 2026 v 0:09 odes=C3=ADlatel Junhyuk Jun Lee n= apsal: > Hi, list. > > *I'd like to share a paper on Bitcoin security in the fee-only regime, > after block rewards reach zero. * > > This paper analyzes at what point deviating from honest mining becomes th= e > rational strategy and how to prevent massive deviation for > profit-maximizing miners using Base Fee, Fee Floor, and adaptive block > size rules . > > *Results:* > > 1. We define a threshold (G_t) that signals when deviation becomes > rational in a fee-only regime. > 2. In simulation, deviation becomes rational at fee differentials as low > as 0.17% of transaction fees when the block reward reaches zero by > continuous halving. > 3. We evaluate three mitigations and their effect on the deviation > threshold: base fees, fee floors, and adaptive block sizing. > > *Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.05503 > * > At what halving epoch does your model predict deviation becomes materially significant in practice? For example, could this begin around 2040, when the subsidy falls to roughly 0.195 BTC per block, or only much later? > > > Related discussion on Delving Bitcoin, including recent fee-equilibrium > modeling that approaches the same regime from the revenue side: > > https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/research-bitcoin-after-block-rewards-prevent= ing-miners-deviation-when-the-bitcoin-rewards-is-zero/2626 > https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/addressing-the-diminishing-block-subsidy/264= 0 > > Feedback on the model and its assumptions is welcome and whether the > mitigations are realistic as soft forks. > > Best, > Junhyuk Lee > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/CAEOyoSPQt%3DTTN-JOVxmCk9UvD= 1MMHwoHPSvm34Zf2gv8RjcxNg%40mail.gmail.com > > . > --=20 You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "= Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= mail to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/= CAKaEYh%2Bt_sPhQaNL91_Pmwc9HdVqQjzXKMDUy_YpsaLCrJ1zhw%40mail.gmail.com. --000000000000d5496d06568608e5 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable


ne 12. 7. 2026 = v=C2=A00:09 odes=C3=ADlatel Junhyuk Jun Lee <xodn348@gmail.com> napsal:
Hi, list.

I= 9;d like to share a paper on Bitcoin security in the fee-only regime, after= block rewards reach zero.=C2=A0

This paper an= alyzes=C2=A0at what point deviating from honest mining becomes the rational= strategy and how to prevent massive deviation for profit-maximizing miners= using Base Fee, Fee Floor, and adaptive block size=C2=A0rules .
=
Results:

1. We define a threshold (G_t) that signals when= deviation becomes rational in a fee-only regime.
2. In simulation, devi= ation becomes rational at fee differentials as low as 0.17% of transaction = fees when the block reward reaches=C2=A0zero by continuous halving.
3. W= e evaluate three mitigations and their effect on the deviation threshold: b= ase fees, fee floors, and adaptive block sizing.

Paper: https://arxiv.org/a= bs/2606.05503

At = what halving epoch does your model predict deviation becomes materially sig= nificant in practice?

For example, could this begi= n around 2040, when the subsidy falls to roughly 0.195 BTC per block, or on= ly much later?
=C2=A0


Related discussion on Delvin= g Bitcoin, including recent fee-equilibrium modeling that approaches the sa= me regime from the revenue side:
https://delvingbitcoin.org/= t/research-bitcoin-after-block-rewards-preventing-miners-deviation-when-the= -bitcoin-rewards-is-zero/2626
https://= delvingbitcoin.org/t/addressing-the-diminishing-block-subsidy/2640
<= br>Feedback on the model and its assumptions is welcome and whether the mit= igations are realistic as soft forks.

Best,
Junhyuk Lee

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups &= quot;Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= mail to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https:= //groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/CAEOyoSPQt%3DTTN-JOVxmCk9UvD1MMHwoHP= Svm34Zf2gv8RjcxNg%40mail.gmail.com.

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups &= quot;Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= mail to bitcoind= ev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/= msgid/bitcoindev/CAKaEYh%2Bt_sPhQaNL91_Pmwc9HdVqQjzXKMDUy_YpsaLCrJ1zhw%40ma= il.gmail.com.
--000000000000d5496d06568608e5--